Pale Blue And Tense

Columbus, Ohio

Campaigning in Ohio isn’t for the faint of heart.

Message to McCain: He that troubleth his own house shall inherit the wind. (Proverbs)

Though it has been a good week for Obama nationally and polls show him, remarkably, ahead in four of five battleground states (Ohio, Florida, Missouri and Virginia) and tied in North Carolina, Ohio’s shade of blue is too pale for comfort.

The latest Marist poll has it 49-45 for Obama here while Rassmussen makes it Obama, 49-47. In and of themselves, it’s arguable that such margins would withstand a eighth inning charge by McCain, should it occur.

Meanwhile, Truthout reports that Republicans are doing what they can to disenfranchise likely Obama voters. [When McCain talks about his “League of Democracies,” why doesn’t he include Ohio?] The latest moves here include lawsuits that invoke the specter of voting fraud.

Ohio’s weeklong period in which new voters can register and immediately cast a ballot was ripe for voting fraud, the Rs say. The state’s method of verifying voter registration information? Insufficient, they claim.

Voter fraud was a buzz phrase for the Ohio GOP when it pushed voter identification requirements through the state Legislature in 2005. It’s now a driving factor behind a flurry of GOP lawsuits leveled against Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, seeking either to restrict early voting or mandate how voter information should be checked. [Click here for more]

Here on the ground, our schedule is full this week, taking us back to Athens County abutting the Appalachian region of Ohio toward the end of the week. Biden is in the same southeastern region this week, following Obama’s well-received swing last week.

Tonight, Newark, Ohio, and the Licking County Democratic Club.

Debate Polls Are All Obama, But . . .

In Round 2, McCain needed a game-changer, and did not get it. Obama wanted to close the sale and did not do it. But Obama moved closer to his goal than McCain did his, with 29 days left, by sweeping the board on polls judging the debate.

Here are the results at MediaCurves.Com.

On the other hand, a recent AP-Yahoo! News poll found that 18 percent of likely voters are up for grabs — undecided or willing to change their minds — little more than five weeks before Americans choose between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain.

A large chunk of these voters say they are hurting on a personal level from the country’s economic woes, and, like everyone else, they say the economy is the top issue. Most are looking for a better life and a leader to help make it happen — and most haven’t found what they seek in Obama or McCain.

Apropos of this, over at Five Thirty Eight blog, there’s a discussion of race and what Obama’s ceiling may be, and some concern that he may be near it, which would mean, if true, that McCain has an advantage with those undecideds.

It’s the most nerve-wracking election I’ve ever been through.

Update: A reader just left an important comment that shows flaws in Five Thirty Eight’s analysis. I urge you to check it out by clicking on Comments, below.

Tight As a Tic

Bozeman, Montana

Polls show it maddeningly close in Buckeye land, but none of them is fresher than seven days old. Rassmussen (9/23) has it McCain 47, Obama 46, Other, 3, Undecided, 3.

Insider Advantage (9/22) has it dead even, 46-46, with Other at 1 percent and Undecided at 7.

This is just me, but I think Thursday’s Biden-Palin debate could have a major effect on the numbers in this still unsettled race, in swing states like Ohio and nationally.

I tend to get superstitious about these things. And I can’t believe that Palin in debate will seem as shockingly … shallow as she was in the Katie Couric interviews. If true, it means she will beat expectations (now at approximately zero). In turn, that would give a boost to what Republicans manage with a straight face to call their “ticket.”

On the other hand, I’ve known Joe Biden as a friend for more than thirty years. When he is on top of his game, he’s as good a debater as there is. Be on top of your game, Joe.

God, we can’t wait to get out there to work off some of this nervous energy!

Our beloved dog Rascal, however, has chosen this moment to relapse on an intestinal illness we thought he’d licked a week ago. We’ll have to delay our departure by at least a day to take him to a specialist in Helena to pinpoint what’s going on. Can’t leave a sick dog with our daughter here in Bozeman. Aargh!